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Articles

Vol. 43 No. 2 (2023)

Plebiscitarianism and State Capacity Erosion in Mexico

DOI
https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2023005000115
Submitted
August 23, 2023
Published
2023-09-12 — Updated on 2024-04-23
Versions

Abstract

Mexico’s political system is currently facing two strong stress tests: first, the arrival to power in 2018 of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), a populist leader who frequently pushes the limits of conventional democratic norms, has opened ques­tions about the resilience of horizontal mechanisms of accountability and separa­tion of powers. This is a democratic backsliding challenge. Second, the country is facing a long-term security crisis that has created concerns about the ability of the Mexican state to effectively control its territory and has brought an encroachment of the armed forces on civilian affairs, extending well beyond security matters. This is primarily a state capacity challenge. While the two of them respond to diffe­rent causes, in this paper I suggest that they have become intertwined: the relative resilience of democratic checks and balances seems to have pushed AMLO and the ruling party (MORENA) to seek new strategies to consolidate their power that are likely eroding state capacity. Analyzing several events of political significance that occurred in 2022, I show that the risks of significant democratic backsliding are relatively contained in present day Mexico and have perhaps been overestimated, but the challenges besieging state capacity and civilian control of the military are likely deeper and their imprint will be long-lasting.

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